Permian Basin & Johnson County Real Estate Market Trends and Predictions For 2026

If there’s one thing we’ve learned as your West Texas real estate experts, it’s that our community is always curious about what’s ahead for the housing market. And truthfully, we get it—whether you’re dreaming about buying your first home, considering a neighborhood move, or simply keeping an eye on your home’s value, the future matters.

That’s why The Sales Team Realtors are digging into the latest housing forecast and breaking it down in a way that actually makes sense. So today, let’s see what experts expect for the 2026 market—and what it could mean for you right here in our own neighborhood.

A Much-Needed Bounce-Back in Home Sales

After a few years of sluggish movement, NAR is forecasting that existing-home sales could increase by around 14% in 2026. This signals that homeowners, buyers, and even those quietly considering a move may be entering a livelier market. However, while this is a great sign for our housing market, this doesn’t mean to expect a frenzy everywhere.

Expect More Stability in Home Prices

Along with the uptick in sales, experts estimate home-prices will climb by about 4% next year. So, while we’re not talking about double-digit price jumps across the board, the trajectory is certainly upward—supported by steady demand and limited supply.

Mortgage Rates May Ease, but Slowly

One of the key factors enabling the rebound: borrowing costs. You can expect mortgage rates to average near 6% for a 30-year fixed rate in 2026—a modest descent from current levels. However, this isn’t a return to the ultra-low rates of several years ago, so affordability will still be a challenge for some.

Why This Shift Is Happening

So, what’s actually driving all these changes in the market? A lot, as it turns out—and it’s more than just mortgage rates. Behind the scenes, a mix of economic strength, shifting buyer demographics, and steady building activity is reshaping the landscape.

When you look at it all together, the market’s 2026 outlook starts to make a lot more sense. Here’s a closer look at the key factors fueling the shift.

Jobs Are Holding Up & Builders Are Working

Steady job-growth continues to support housing demand, and more supply—especially from new-home construction in certain markets.

Expanding Inventory

The upward momentum in listings and building activity are helping keep home prices from climbing at the rapid pace we saw during the pandemic. That means more options for buyers and more competitive pricing as sellers are realizing they don’t have all the power in our current market.

Buyer Profile: Changing Shapes

A couple of interesting shifts: the “typical” home buyer age is now nearing 59 years old, repeat buyers averaging around 62. Additionally, the number one reason people move today is because they want to be closer to friends and family.

First-time buyers are facing more hurdles: only about 21% of purchases lately come from first-timers—a low point historically – and the average age of a first-time buyer is 40. Their biggest struggle is finding an affordable property, and saving for a down payment.

What This Means for You—The Sales Team’s Take on the Midland, Odessa, and Johnson County Markets

Now that we’ve unpacked the forecast, let’s talk about what it actually means for you. Every housing market has its own personality, and Texas is no exception. While national predictions give us a big-picture idea, the real impact is felt right here at home—in our neighborhoods, price points, and day-to-day conversations with buyers and sellers.

So here’s our take on how these trends could play out locally, and how you can position yourself for success whether you’re planning to buy, sell, or simply stay informed.

If You’re Planning to Buy…

With rates expected to ease a little and more supply coming on board, 2026 could be a good window to seriously explore home buying.
That said, “a little easier” doesn’t mean “super easy”—affordability still depends on your budget and your financial prep.
First-time buyers: If you’ve been waiting on the sidelines, now’s the time to get your ducks in a row (save for down payment, review your credit, talk to an agent).

If You’re Planning to Sell…

With home-sales projected to pick up, you might find more buyer activity next year—meaning your home could sell faster or for a stronger price than in a quieter market.
It’s still important to price thoughtfully. Homes sitting too long tend to require price reductions.
We can help you analyze our local market to set a strategy that aligns with next year’s trends.

If You’re Holding On (for now)…

Even if you’re not actively buying or selling, knowing that the market may be entering a more active phase could help with planning: whether that’s refinancing, renovating, or repositioning your home for the future.
Home-equity remains strong, foreclosures/delinquencies remain historically low—good signals for overall stability.

Final Thoughts

Real estate isn’t just numbers—it’s homes, families, and the places where memories happen. And the 2026 forecast brings us some promising signs: more movement, more opportunity, and a bit more breathing room than we’ve had in recent years.

If you’re curious about what this means for you personally, our team is ready to break it down for you. Whether you’re buying, selling, or just keeping an eye on things—give us a call, drop us a line, or swing by for a chat. The Sales Team Realtors would love to help you make sense of our market.