2025 Texas Housing Market Predictions
The Texas real estate market is constantly evolving, and the latest trends are telling a unique story.
One of the most striking shifts of 2024? The median homebuyer age climbed significantly.
Why? Affordability challenges have made it increasingly difficult for young buyers, which has led to a richer and older demographic controlling the market.
Whether you’re looking to make a move in the Permian Basin or Johnson County, understanding the latest changes in both of these local markets can help you stay ahead of the game.
Keep reading as we take a closer look at what 2024 taught us and what’s on the horizon for the year ahead!
More Inventory is Balancing Out the Market
One of the bright spots in 2024 was the gradual increase in housing inventory, thanks to steady efforts by builders and sellers returning to the market. The graph below shows how inventory levels were 30% higher than the year before as we neared the end of 2024, giving buyers more options and creating a more balanced market.
And it is always important to note that life-changing events—marriages, relocations, and family expansions—will continue to keep the housing market active.
Heading into 2025, inventory is expected to improve even further. Builders are keeping pace, and more sellers are likely to list their homes as fiscal policies stabilize post-election. This pent-up seller release, combined with population growth, is poised to create a more favorable market, especially for buyers who will have more choice and less pressure.
(The blue line in the graph below shows new-build inventory compared to existing inventory.)
An Older, Richer Demographic is Controlling the Market
Demographics continued to shift in 2024, reshaping the housing market. The average age of first-time homebuyers climbed to 38, compared to 35 in 2023—reflecting the financial hurdles younger generations face.
Only 24% of all home purchases this year were by first-time buyers, marking an all-time low. On the flip side, the typical home seller’s age reached 63, the oldest we’ve seen, and 26% of all transactions were paid in cash—a record high.
In 2025, the focus will be on helping first-time buyers overcome these challenges. Preparing early by gathering financial documents, securing pre-approvals, and staying ready to act when rates dip can make all the difference. While affordability remains a concern, there’s hope for younger generations as the market continues to adjust and more programs become available to assist with down payments and financing.
Healthy Growth is on the Horizon
In 2024, the number of real estate transactions mirrored the pace of 2023, with approximately 4.1 million home sales (graph above). The year started with tight inventory and limited options for buyers; but as the year progressed, inventory began to loosen up. This shift, paired with signs of stabilization in the market, hinted at a brighter future for those looking to make a move.
Looking ahead to 2025, the market is projected to see a 9% increase in home sales, much like the steady job growth and rising business confidence we are seeing today. These economic factors are expected to create a more dynamic housing market, offering more opportunities for both buyers and sellers. With inventory levels improving and transactions expected to rise, 2025 might just be the year you find the home of your dreams.
Mortgage Rates: It’s Looking Like 6% Will Be the New Normal
Mortgage rates in 2024 were a rollercoaster. Despite the Federal Reserve cutting rates multiple times, mortgage rates didn’t follow suit as expected (depicted in the graph below).
With today’s high national deficit and less mortgage money available, it became clear that 2-3% rates were an anomaly of the past. As we move further into the year, we can expect buyers to begin adjusting to the idea of 6% being the “new normal.”
Mortgage rates are anticipated to fluctuate between 5.8% – 6.2%. While rate cuts by the Fed are expected, buyers should remember the Federal Reserve doesn’t directly control interest rates.
The market is becoming more conditioned to higher rates, with many seeing 6% as a reasonable deal compared to earlier spikes at 8%. Staying informed and working with a knowledgeable agent can help buyers lock in the best rates when they are available.
Will 2025 Finally Be a “Normal” Housing Market?
The real estate market in 2025 holds plenty of promise, with more sales, better inventory, and increasing confidence among buyers and sellers in both Johnson County and the Midland/Odessa areas. Having an experienced team by your side can make all the difference, and that’s where The Sales Team Realtors come in. Ready to get started? Contact us today, and let’s navigate your next real estate journey together with confidence!